Monday, October 29, 2012

$SPX - Short Term Update

So far SPX has had difficulty pushing up through the pink fork resistance last week, and consolidated sideways instead of bouncing much.  However, there is support at 1400 which has been holding. 

It may, or may not, trade a little lower this week, but there are numerous supports just below in any case.

Overall, the analysis indicates that the gradual decline phase from mid-September should be nearly complete.  There are very positive spots in November short term cycles.  The market could soon be in a position to spike up surprisingly sharply.

2 hour Chart
This fork has done an excellent job of defining resistance.  Fork resistance has been holding so far.  Even if it manages to push up here, then there should be heavy resistance just above (around the orange line).

A re-test of near the bottom is likely for UVXY in November. 

30min Chart

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

$SPX - Short Term Positive Cycle Due

SPX had a weak day yesterday once it fell through the yellow fork.  Nevertheless, a short term positive cycle is due, and therefore a bounce is probable next, and could take some time to play out.

There should still be a lower low for SPX following this bounce.  A final lower low would then complete the gradual declining phase.  

60min Chart

UVXY reached fork resistance yesterday, and is due to cool off short term.  A test of the midfork seems probable next.  Following a cooling off period, a final spike up is likely.

30min Chart

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

UVXY - Update

UVXY did, in fact, confirm the breakout overnight.  So that does change the short term outlook considerably.  However, in November, it is anticipated that near the bottom is tested once again. 

30min Chart

Monday, October 22, 2012

UVXY - Important Setup

UVXY likely already bottomed.  An attempt was made to break above the midfork today, but it was not quite ready to do so. 

Short term positive cycles are due for SPX, therefore, UVXY is probably going to dip, and put in a higher low before a real breakout.

This time is absolutely most important in terms of large cycles...  After much waiting, big picture charts will be posted this week.  

30min Chart

Thursday, October 18, 2012

$SPX - Downtrend to Resume

SPX bounced sharply, but the gradual downtrend from mid-September is clearly defined.  Another lower low is possible soon.   

VIX put in a higher low today from several days ago.  VIX also has been making higher lows since August.

60min Chart

UVXY tested fork support today, and it held.  Short term it may be ready for a solid push higher.

30min Chart

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

$SPX - Short Term Outlook

The recent sharp rally continues to be characteristic of an overall sideways to gradually declining market.  This current phase is anticipated to last for weeks.

Cycles are turning negative again, and indicate another short term drop is due shortly to test near the recent low for SPX.  

15min Chart

Thursday, October 11, 2012

$SPX - 5 year Cycle Coming Due

A large 5 year cycle is coming due.  The significance of this larger picture view will be discussed in depth in November. 

Think big when others think small. 

7day Chart

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

$SPX - Gradual Decline Phase

There will likely be a few sharp bounces along the way, but overall SPX is anticipated to form a gradual decline lower to the green target area.  It is estimated that this decline phase takes 3 weeks to complete.

The process should be choppy with another moderate spike up during the first half of November (once the downside target area is reached).  The spike may take SPX to a marginal new high for 2012.  A final November spike would complete a broadening top formation. 

The bigger picture is much more important, and those charts are coming. 

60min Chart
Short Term:

UVXY is at midfork resistance and should flatten out for a few days, then drop down again early next week. 

SPX may be relatively quiet for the rest of the week, then have a decent bounce early next week.

30min Chart

Thursday, October 4, 2012

$SPX - Spike Update

SPX reached the target area today, and also touched the yellow fork line.  It will be interesting to see how it interacts with the fork line here.

Although this rally does not seem to be finished yet, there are negative spots in the cycle analysis for Friday/Monday.      

30min Chart