Sunday, September 30, 2012

$SPX - Spike Up Next

The cycle analysis is very positive for SPX early this week.  Therefore, a spike up fairly sharply looks likely, and top out during the middle of the week. 

In contrast, the second half of the week looks negative.  The white trendline short term downside target appears due to be tested early in October. 

30min Chart

Thursday, September 27, 2012

UVXY - Wild Swings

Careful with these swings!  There are currently very fast swings occurring in the VIX as panic and complacency gyrates from one extreme to the other extreme.  This is creating high energy movements in UVXY up and down. 

These wild whipsaws look like they are about to become wilder rather than calmer.  UVXY fell below the $32 level which is a concern, and suggests further downside could be possible. 

This could be the case even if it bounces in the morning.

At the same time, this unusual situation appears to be a major bottoming formation process.  Even with possible downside to near the area of the green arrow, the short term upside target remains at $43. 

30min Chart

$SPX - Plunge Update

SPX plunged once it lost support of the yellow fork.  It tested near the midfork yesterday, and has some room in price and time for a bounce into this Friday (tomorrow).  Next week SPX looks likely to drop below the midfork and test the white trendline short term target.

60min Chart

UVXY confirmed a breakout.  There should be strong support in the $32's, and next week a test of near the turquiose fork at around $38.50 looks likely.

The short term target remains at $43 by or before Oct 10th.

30min Chart

Sunday, September 23, 2012

$SPX - Plunge into Early October

SPX managed to bounce from an initial test of the yellow fork last week.  This small bounce may not be quite finished yet. 

However, any rally attempts this week should be considered last gasps that will fail.  The result will be a plunge into early October.

The white trendlines represent short term downside targets.

60min Chart

Many leaders have underperformed from the May high, and this is an early warning.  RUT is keeping pace, but normally would be expected to outperform during a decent rally phase.  Notably, TRAN is already collapsing.  The conclusion is that SPX is currently trading in the late stage of a bubble, and the warning is clear for the months ahead. 
It is important to recognize that these relationships are more relevant to bigger picture views rather than short term outlooks.  Bigger picture charts are coming soon. 

Daily Chart

Thursday, September 20, 2012

UVXY - Wedge Update

Yesterday, the price closed above the wedge.  Even so, a lower low is still possible in coming days.  Volume continues to be well above average. 

The short term target remains at $43.

30min Chart

Saturday, September 15, 2012

UVXY - Wedge Formation

A wedge has formed for UVXY.  It still may retest near the lower orange wedge line again before a breakout to the upside this week. 

A conservative short term target on a breakout of the wedge is $43.  The gap area is just above that also. 

Notice that the volume has been rapidly increasing over the last week.  This is likely an indication of UVXY approaching a major bottom.  Bigger picture charts will be coming soon.  

30min Chart

Thursday, September 13, 2012

$SPX - Update

SPX did find resistance at the yellow fork, and then found support at the turquoise fork.  Now, it is hovering, and hasn't given much direction as far as the next short term move.

However, in the bigger picture, the view is that SPX is trading near a major top.  Further details as far as bigger picture views will be coming soon.   

30min Chart

Monday, September 10, 2012

$SPX - Short Term Update

SPX found support at the yellow midfork, and bounced back up to resistance at the upper fork.  There are quite negative cycles this week so a substantial dip looks likely from this resistance level.

30min Chart

As SPX dips this week, the gap area is the target for UVXY. 
30min Chart

Thursday, September 6, 2012

UVXY - Different Short Term Scenario

SPX analysis including short term target level 1380 and timing (early next week) remain the same.

However, UVXY may play out according to the following short term scenario instead.  It still should pop quite well early next week during the negative cycle, but from a lower price.    

15min Chart

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

$SPX - Trending Lower

SPX managed a small bounce at the yellow midfork as expected, but remains trending lower.  This week the cycle analysis is negative, and that continues into early next week as well.  Today is quite negative, and also September 10-11th may be the most significant dates for weakness.

30min Chart

UVXY is due for a spike higher on a short term basis.  At this pace, UVXY can reach the target area September 10-11th. 
It will likely spend a few days testing the white horizontal before breaking out to the target area. 
30min Chart