Friday, June 29, 2012

$SPX - July Outlook Severely Bearish

SPX tested the orange midfork this week, and bounced sharply once it held firm as support.  There were negative cycles during the week, but that only resulted in a few significant down days rather than a sustained downtrend.  The negative cycles continue in July.

Minimal upside seems possible first into the 1370's, but overall the outlook is severely bearish in July.  The cycle analysis is very negative during the middle part of July with mixed positive and negative spots late in the month.  Therefore, late July is likely to be characterized by whipsaws.  August looks much more positive.         

30min Chart

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

$SPX - Short Term Update

A small bounce may occur at this level.  However, the cycle analysis remains very negative into July 3rd.  After some consolidation, the drop is likely to continue.

The July plan will be coming shortly. 

30min Chart

Friday, June 22, 2012

$SPX - Caution Warranted!!!!

There are positive cycles going into Monday.  SPX should bounce in Monday, but it may only be relatively minor.  Caution is warranted since the plunge yesterday was so deep.  There are numerous strong supports at this level and just below for now.  Therefore, a bounce and quiet markets for today and Monday is most likely.

Next week, the cycle analysis is extremely negative centered around June 29th.  A continuation of the drop next week is anticipated.       

30min chart

The bottom is likely in place for UVXY.  It should see a minor dip today at some point, but it may not dip as well on Monday as SPX bounces.  Therefore, a minor low could be in place today with a higher low on Monday. 

Today and Monday may be described as a choppy or sideways zone.

This is important.  Once it starts moving higher early next week, from the patterns, there will be HARDLY ANY DIPS on the way up! 

15min Chart

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

$SPX - More Time and Price Required

There is potential for a decent dip in the short term with negative cycles in place today.  However, there are a cluster of trendlines just above, and those are likely to be tested late this week.  A true top may require further time and price. 

Next week, the cycle analysis is negative all week, and extremely negative centered around June 29th.  A top for SPX is still possible early next week though.  Sometimes the market can ignore the negative cycles for a few days, but typically not for long. 

It is early now, but a late June sudden collapse appears practically unavoidable according to many different cycles. 

15min Chart

Saturday, June 16, 2012

$SPX - Slow Week Ahead

There is such overwhelming talk of numerous "important" geopolitical events in the coming week that it is sure to be slow and quiet instead.  The cycles and charts remain bullish, and a slow grind up looks most likely for the week. 

Early in the week there will probably be a few whiffs of action with small rallies and dips, and then everything will just turn calm.

Of course, a calm market is a VIX killer...

15min Chart

Friday, June 15, 2012

$SPX - Big Rally Update

SPX managed to push up above the yellow fork resistance yesterday.  The sideways consolidation zone should be nearing completion in time with a more convincing surge in price higher next week.  

15min Chart

Monday, June 11, 2012

$SPX - Big Rally Coming

SPX has continued to follow the plan from June 4th analysis. Today, the deep retrace occurred, and another major rally phase is to commence shortly. 

SPX tested several major fork resistances.  The result was the false breakout early this morning.  The real breakout is coming soon to kick off a big rally up to the target zone!

Late June looks very weak again with a major decline anticipated.     

60min Chart

June 4th analysis shows the deep retrace that occurred today with another spike up to follow.

Chart from June 4th:

Daily Chart

Saturday, June 9, 2012

UVXY - VIX Wild Ride Ahead!

The volatility in June is going to be "outrageous" with violent swings in both directions. 

Remember, the June targets for SPX are 1372 high next, and 1245 low to follow.  Markets are set to rally strongly until the high anticipated +/- June 19th, then fall precipitously into an end of June SPX low.

30min Chart

30min Chart

Friday, June 8, 2012

$SPX - Taking a Breather

SPX is taking a "breather" dip before the rocket ship blasts off again next week.  The current dip is not likely to see much lower with a low due today or Monday at the latest.  Then the market will be poised for another surge up next week into the target zone for the next higher high.

After the target zone is reached then a larger dip should occur.  However, the final high is not anticipated until the week of June 18th to 22nd.

30min Chart

Monday, June 4, 2012

$SPX - June Targets

The next several days are likely to be quiet with sideways trade.  There is support at 1270 which could still be tested this week.  However, the market is setting up to rally, and it will be powerful with a test of fork resistance at the green arrow targeted.  The date anticipated is around June 18th for that upside target.

Late June looks weak again, and June 29th is the date targeted for a low around 1245. 

Daily Chart

Saturday, June 2, 2012

XIV - June Volatility Roadmap

XIV has been trending down within the turquoise fork.  It will likely drift a touch lower in the next few trading sessions.  However, a large spike up and breakout of the fork is imminent next week.  There should be some consolidation following the breakout, and then another spike up to the target arrow. 

SPX is setting up to rally sharply into June 18th give or take.  An SPX upside target is 1372.  Late June looks very weak for the markets again.

60min Chart

UVXY managed a false break of the yellow fork, and will soon break down below the turquoise fork.  The next large run for UVXY is anticipated in late June.   

60min Chart