Thursday, May 31, 2012

XIV - Triangle Pattern

The zone marked "chop" from May 20th analysis appears to be nearly complete.  A triangle pattern has formed and price is trading around the lower boundary.  XIV should be just about ready to spike to the upside.

A spike up to the target arrow is anticipated shortly.

30min Chart

The following is the chart from May 20th analysis. 

60min Chart

Monday, May 28, 2012

$SPX - Volatility to Persist

A strong rally is brewing, and that looks likely for early June, but it is also possible that a dip occurs first.  So in the short term it is important now to watch for false breakouts that may not follow through just yet.

The main point is that it may take a little more time to truly solidify. 

30min Chart

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

UVXY - Choppy Phase Continues

Today, UVXY hit the red target at $16.50, and rocketed higher again.  That price level proved to be solid support.  The fact that the target was hit early suggests a lower low may be still yet to come. 

Therefore, price action appears to be in a whipsaw phase.  Some minimal upside could be possible first.  Yet another significant decline perhaps near the green oval seems to be setting up to follow.

60min Chart

The following is the chart from May 20th analysis with the red target shown at $16.50 (hit today).

60min Chart

Sunday, May 20, 2012

XIV - Bullish Setup

This is an excellent bullish setup for XIV into early June.  This week could be choppy with bounces up and down, and retests of the low are likely.  Once it firms up and gains traction, then a spike up to the target zone is anticipated.

Little or no downside is expected for SPX this week, and a sharp rally is imminent for SPX into the same time period. 

60min Chart

UVXY had a strong run and is due to retrace deeply.  The June upside target and analysis will be coming soon. 

60min Chart

Saturday, May 19, 2012

$VIX - Spiked

The VIX charged up from the bull flag pattern shown in April.  Now, it is ready to cool off for 2 weeks.  Following the cooling off period, the final VIX spike is anticipated to reach the target zone in the 2nd week of June.
It is important to emphasize that spikes in the VIX are characteristic of bottoms in the market.  Not only that, but the market bottoms tend to last for a while afterwards.

The bottom for SPX should be within only a few points.  SPX is set to rally very strongly off this low for a 2 week period.  Interestingly, the final spike for the VIX in June is anticipated to correspond to a higher low for SPX.    

Daily Chart

Below is the chart from April 29th:

April 29th:

"The VIX chart originally shown on March 29th worked well for April. Currently, there is high potential for a large spike up in the VIX. Complacency is high."   
Daily Chart

Thursday, May 17, 2012

$SPX - Bottomed

The low is likely in place now with the pink fork line hit this morning (as shown in the last SPX analysis).  The bounce off this level is anticipated to be quite powerful into late May. 

30min Chart

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Silver - Ready to Rebound

There is support at this level for Silver.  It should rebound well from this low in the near term.  Once it bounces though it will be time to review closely because the large "M" pattern is ultimately bearish longer term.    

Daily Chart

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

$SPX - Bottom Near

The low is very close, and the bounce that follows this will be impressive.  Minimal downside is still possible, but there is powerful support just underneath. 

Price will rocket back up off the low to test near the highs again.  The market is currently in a whipsaw phase. 

Daily Chart

Monday, May 14, 2012

$SPX - Update

SPX managed a slight lower low this morning from last week.  However, NDX is holding well and Russell 2000 futures have a higher low over the last week.  These are positive signs for the market going forward.

15min Chart


Thursday, May 10, 2012

$SPX - Positive Cycles Underway

The low may now be in place, and it came in on May 9th, the date specified in April.  The cycle analysis was negative until yesterday, and has turned positive.  This weekend and next week are surprisingly positive using that method.

Resistance shown in the 1365 area has been tested a few times this week, and the market may soon have the strength to break out above that zone. 

60min Chart

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Gold/Silver - Major Low Forming

It has required a ton of patience to wait for Gold and Silver to slowly grind lower.  Finally, the current levels offer support and prices look extremely attractive. 

Silver has dipped relatively more than Gold comparatively since early April with Gold holding better.  This mechanism allows for Gold to make a new high in the current bull market.  Silver is also set to bounce strongly, but not above the April 2011 top.

A spectacular move up for Gold would result from the large triangle breaking to the upside.

Daily Chart

Sunday, May 6, 2012

UVXY - Popped but NO Sizzle

SPX did confirm negative early May cycles with a mini waterfall last week.  The VIX and VIX futures popped, but did not spike strongly.  According to the cycle analysis, while early May cycles were weak, the dominant feature of May cycles is a very positive middle part to the month particularly the week of May 14th.

UVXY could still have minor upside to near the red line, but it should drop just under $10 in the third week of May.  The drop would then complete a large wedge pattern with the white trendline marking the upper boundary. 

The target for UVXY in June is $28 with VIX making a massive spike up.  June SPX cycles are dramatically negative, and start to turn negative late May.    

60min Chart

Thursday, May 3, 2012

$SPX - Update

The results of negative early May cycles are evident in the market.  The result has been continued chop rather than any serious breach of support though.  There is resistance around 1408, but a break above that level could result in another push higher.  

There are still weak spots in the cycle analysis in early May, but the middle part of May looks positive.  There are weak spots again later in May, and particularly June looks very negative.   

15min Chart